I re-blog here today this nice pos from a fellow WordPress economist Blogger. And Nature& Science is also posting on Probability&Statistics, Mathematics topics.
In this paper we began by describing the position of those critical realists who are sceptical about multi-variate statistics … Some underlying assumptions of this sceptical argument were shown to be false. Then a positive case in favour of using analytical statistics as part of a mixed-methods methodology was developed. An example of the interpretation […]
via On analytical statistics and critical realism — LARS P. SYLL
In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. Source: www.pnas.org
via Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems — Complexity Digest
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Dendrology: The community of trees
Source: Dendrology: The community of trees
I think there are two kinds of ignorance: one which is positive and a kind motor force of the world of knowledge; and one negative with which so much of Humanity find herself imprisoned. The negative ignorance is also more widespread, and this may be the reason that when we hear, read or pronounce this word, the first reaction is one of negativity and disgust. This kind of ignorance is of course a very bad state of affairs, as it invariably pushes everyone to one corner of our Minds where is difficult to get out; and it always finds ways to perpetuate itself in a whirlpool of further ignorance upon ignorance and error, and each move is like a move in a deadly swamp… But let us not forget about that first motor force of knowledge: a kind of bliss ignorance that propels us to seek more and more layers of further knowledge, and where the whirlpool is a happy virtuous one.
An alternative possibility is to accept the consequences of the apparent fact that the central prediction of the Bayesian model in its descriptive capacity, that people’s choices are or are &…
Source: Bayes vs. Keynes on probability and belief in economic theory