On analytical statistics and critical realism — LARS P. SYLL

I re-blog here today this nice pos from a fellow WordPress economist Blogger. And Nature& Science is also posting on Probability&Statistics, Mathematics topics.

 

In this paper we began by describing the position of those critical realists who are sceptical about multi-variate statistics … Some underlying assumptions of this sceptical argument were shown to be false. Then a positive case in favour of using analytical statistics as part of a mixed-methods methodology was developed. An example of the interpretation […]

via On analytical statistics and critical realism — LARS P. SYLL

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Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems — Complexity Digest

In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. Source: www.pnas.org

via Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems — Complexity Digest

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On two kinds of ignorance

I think there are two kinds of ignorance: one which is positive and a kind motor force of the world of knowledge; and one negative with which so much of Humanity find herself imprisoned. The negative ignorance is also more widespread, and this may be the reason that when we hear, read or pronounce this word, the first reaction is one of negativity and disgust. This kind of ignorance is of course a very bad state of affairs, as it invariably pushes everyone to one corner of our Minds where is difficult to get out; and it always finds ways to perpetuate itself in a whirlpool of further ignorance upon ignorance and error, and each move is like a move in a deadly swamp… But let us not forget about that first motor force of knowledge: a kind of bliss ignorance that propels us to seek more and more layers of further knowledge, and where the whirlpool is a happy virtuous one.

The Start of Time (Physics)

I repost today this wonderful take on the Physics of Time by a recent follower of Self-organized Science&Technology.

Scientific Babble

The 2 common ways that the world was believed to have been created was:

  • The Big Bang Theory – Science
  • Creation – Christianity

Today I am going to talk about a few different versions humans have on how the world was created. Before I get started I would just like to point out that there are many different versions we have about the beginning of time, some science based, some religious. Everyone has the right to believe in what they deem is correct and not to be judged on their views.

First up, ‘The Big Bang Theory’

Most astronomers believed that 13.8 billion ears ago, there was a HUGE explosion! At that time, the entire universe was inside a bubble that was thousands of times smaller than a pinhead. It was hotter and denser than anything we can comprehend. BANG!!! It instantaneously exploded. Time, space and matter all started with the Big Bang. In a fraction of…

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